Zhiwen Wang 王志文

This study examines how early exposure to Western democratic institutions shaped the political ideology of Chinese government officials during the late Qing Dynasty. Using a novel dataset of 296 central officials' responses to democratic reform proposals in 1898, I analyze the relationship between institutional exposure and pro-democracy sentiment through large language model evaluation of historical documents.

The research leverages variation in the establishment of Electoral Municipal Councils (EMCs) in Chinese treaty ports as a natural experiment. Beginning with Shanghai's EMC in 1854, these democratic institutions created differential exposure to Western governance models across Chinese prefectures. I construct a gravity model to measure individual officials' cumulative exposure to democratic institutions based on geographic proximity to treaty ports and the timing of EMC establishment.

The empirical analysis reveals three key findings. First, exposure to democratic institutions specifically, rather than mere trade contact, drives pro-democracy sentiment among elites. A one standard deviation increase in democratic treaty port exposure increases pro-democracy preference by 8% of a standard deviation, while trade-only treaty port exposure shows no significant effect. Second, traditional Chinese governance exposure through provincial capitals negatively affects democratic sentiment (-19% standard deviation), creating a net positive shift of 27% when replaced by democratic exposure. Third, higher-ranking officials exhibit significantly less pro-democracy sentiment, suggesting that vested interests in existing power structures inhibit ideological change.

These findings contribute to our understanding of how institutional exposure shapes elite political preferences and provide historical evidence for the diffusion of democratic ideas across cultural boundaries. The study demonstrates that meaningful contact with democratic institutions, rather than economic integration alone, drives ideological transformation among governing elites. The results have implications for understanding political modernization processes and the role of international institutional exposure in shaping domestic political attitudes.

This paper investigates the impact of Western influence, via the magistrates' treaty port hometown, on their governance and the 1911 Revolution in late Qing China. Exploiting the lottery-based assignment of magistrates as a source of exogenous variation, we find evidence of two distinct channels through which Western-influenced magistrates shaped the course of the revolution.

First, these magistrates were less willing to resist the revolutionary uprising, as evidenced by their higher propensity to peacefully surrender or defect to the revolutionaries. Second, their governance was more likely to incite a higher propensity for revolution in their jurisdictions. Importantly, these results cannot be explained by differences in magistrates' administrative capacity. In fact, evidence suggests that these Western-influenced magistrates were effective administrators, as there was less discontent with the magistrates themselves and their administration among the public. Moreover, they performed better in establishing modern industries. Instead, the increased discontent stemmed primarily from their Western-style education policies and perceived inclination towards Western religion.

This suggests that Western influence might reshape the mindsets and governance approaches of these local leaders through exposure in their treaty port hometowns, leading them to embrace and implement Western-inspired reforms that inadvertently fueled public backlash. Our findings highlight the profound, yet complex and sometimes paradoxical impacts of Western influence on local governance. The paper underscores the critical role of local government heads in shaping the trajectory of the 1911 Revolution that ended millennia of imperial rule in China. More broadly, the study sheds light on both the promises and pitfalls of foreign-inspired institutional reforms, and the challenges of adapting such reforms to local economic and cultural conditions.